Residential market update September 2026

New Zealand housing market remains steady

New Zealand's housing market stayed on its familiar sideways path this month. The second Official Cash Rate (OCR) rise of the cycle landed during the month, but the market’s response was muted and we do not expect it to shift conditions materially through the rest of the year.

Sales activity softens across Auckland

REINZ’s market sales data for the past month showed prices tracking sideways nationally, with some variance up and down in the regions. Sales activity was softer than usual led by lower sales volumes in the Auckland region. Regionally, the South Island continues to lead, with Canterbury, Otago and Southland recording the strongest performance over the past 12 months on the back of strong performing rural and tourism sectors, and internal migration.

High housing supply limits price growth

The supply of homes for sale remains high and this is the main handbrake on price growth. Interest rates are also on the radar, with the OCR moving up to 2.75% (+0.25%) during September. This has lifted short-term home loan rates but longer-term fixed rates remain unchanged. The rise was widely expected so is unlikely to be a major headwind in the short-term.

Election uncertainty has limited impact on housing

Election campaigning continues, though housing has for the most part avoided the political debate. Taxation has drawn some discussion, but the market appears to regard the more far-reaching proposals as unlikely to proceed. The softer sales volumes during August could indicate a modest election slowdown, although our agents have highlighted other factors such as the high supply of homes for sale and cost of living concerns as being key drivers for slower decisions by buyers.

Selective buyers remain active at auction

Beneath the relative stability of the headline numbers, we have seen some examples of strongly contested auctions across our network where properties have hit the sweet spot for their local market. Buyers with money to spend are clearly active, but very selective and cautious of listings that are over-priced.

Housing market expected to remain neutral

Our view is the market is likely to remain broadly neutral through the second half of 2026, with a continuation of the South Island outperforming the North Island. In these competitive market conditions, it is critical that sales processes are set up for success through realistic price appraisals, effective marketing and dedicated salespeople.